Unraveling Demographics: The Implications of a Low-Fertility Future

A Low Fertility World

As you step outside your front door, a deep, unsettling silence envelops you. The once-familiar sounds of children’s laughter, the pitter-patter of young feet, and the joyful shouts of teenagers playing basketball have all vanished, replaced by an eerie and unnerving stillness. The air feels heavy, as if the very vibrancy of life has been drained from the neighborhood.

Looking around, you are confronted with a sea of grey hair and wrinkled faces. The once-vibrant suburban streets are now dominated by the slow-moving figures of the elderly, their bodies bent and weathered, leaning heavily on canes as they shuffle along the sidewalks. The local mall, once a bustling hub of activity, now stands empty and silent, its once-lively storefronts shuttered and abandoned. The basketball court, its hoop and net long since removed, serves as a haunting reminder of the absent youth, a startling reminder to the community’s lost vitality.

Turning on the television in search of any sign of the younger generation, you are instead greeted by a relentless barrage of news reports and talk show segments focused solely on the aging population. The narrative has shifted, with the youth now portrayed as jaded and resentful towards the elderly, a generation seen as a burden on the struggling economy.

Heartbreaking stories of elder abuse, financial fraud targeting vulnerable senior citizens, and senseless acts of vandalism against the grey-haired members of society flood the airwaves. You watch in horror as the images of frail, elderly men and women, living out their twilight years in the once-peaceful suburbs of Florida, are subjected to these deplorable crimes, their hard-earned tranquility shattered by the very people they had hoped would carry on their legacy.

Stepping outside, the physical signs of societal decline are impossible to ignore. Property prices across the country have plummeted, some by as much as 50–70% of their original value, as the youth populatixon abandons the suburbs in search of the few remaining jobs in the major cities. Those who had counted on the equity in their homes to fund a comfortable retirement now find themselves facing an uncertain future, forced to rethink their plans and adjust to this new, bleak reality.

City and state governments, struggling to maintain essential services with dwindling populations and shrinking tax revenues, find themselves trapped in a vicious cycle. Funding for education, infrastructure, and local community projects dwindles, further exacerbating the collapse of suburban society and the hollowing out of what was once the vibrant heart of America.

Protests and riots, fueled by economic inequality and the growing resentment between the generations, have become a daily occurrence, straining an ever-more-expensive police force to maintain a semblance of order. What was once a rare and violent anomaly has now become the new normal, as the very fabric of society continues to unravel.

Politicians, consumed by the constant pressure of the next election cycle rather than long-term solutions, witness the effects of this demographic shift but fail to address the root causes. Global order becomes disorder as nations fight to repopulate themselves, opening borders and increasing immigration rates in a desperate attempt to stave off the specter of demographic decline.

The invisible threads that once bound our thriving and prosperous nation together begin to snap, one by one, as the very foundations of society start to crumble. The remaining threads, strained to the breaking point, struggle to hold the fraying fabric of our civilization together, as the silent, slow-motion collapse of a once-vibrant society plays out before our eyes.

Other nations have similar doomsday challenges, not wanting to open the floodgates to immigration, but having to do so to repopulate. There’s only a handful of countries that have a high total fertility rate, and so the citizens of those countries are the ones that undertake the grave mission of repopulating the world’s countries. Nations start to blend and look like one another, losing their distinctive culture, character, and core.

This is not an inevitability, but rather a stark warning of the potential consequences of a low-fertility world. We are not powerless to prevent this dystopian scenario, but we must act swiftly and decisively to address the underlying issues before it’s too late.

In this essay, I will explore the statistics and facts that highlight the emergence of a low-fertility world, draw on historical precedents to understand the potential consequences, and consider possible solutions. By engaging in this rational discussion, we can better grasp the gravity of the situation and identify strategies to navigate these challenges effectively.

Just The Facts

As the year 2024 dawns, the world finds itself at a critical juncture in its demographic journey. The once-steady flow of new life that sustained communities and powered economic growth has slowed to a trickle, leaving an indelible mark on the fabric of society.

From 1960 to 2023, the total fertility rate (TFR) — a metric that represents the expected lifetime number of children per woman — has plummeted by a staggering 50% across OECD countries and globally. This precipitous drop has left all but one of the 38 OECD nations well below the long-run replacement rate of roughly 2.1 children per woman.

The outlier, South Korea, stands out with a dismal TFR of just 0.72, a rate mirrored in other countries like Costa Rica, Chile, Colombia, and Turkey, which are sliding just as fast, if not faster, into the demographic abyss. These alarming figures paint a picture of a world where the replacement of populations is increasingly an uphill battle.

The regional disparities are equally stark, with South America leading the way in the decline, followed by Asia and North America. The current replacement level for Asia, at 1.31, is the worst, while Europe’s 1.42 is a slightly better, but still woefully inadequate, 1.42.

But the true scale of the crisis may be even more severe than the commonly accepted figures suggest. According to the analysis of renowned economist Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, the widely used 2.1 replacement level is only applicable to the United Kingdom, as it fails to account for variations in the male-to-female ratio and the probability of women reaching reproductive age in other countries.

Fernandez-Villaverde argues that the actual global replacement level should be set at 2.21, a figure that paints an even more dire picture. Adjusting the UN data to this higher threshold, he estimates that the global fertility rate last year stood at just 2.18, below the level required to sustain population size.

Regardless of the precise numbers, the low-fertility future is now a stark reality, and the trajectory only worsens from here. In little more than 25 years, over 75% of countries will be unable to maintain their population levels, a figure that rises to a staggering 97% in just 75 years.

By 2050, global fertility is projected to decline further, reaching a TFR of around 1.8, and plummeting to a mere 1.6 by the end of the century. The outlook is particularly bleak for Western Europe, where rates are expected to fall to 1.44 by 2050 and 1.37 by 2100, with even the highest-performing countries like Israel, Iceland, Denmark, France, and Germany struggling to maintain fertility above 2.09 and 1.40.

Alongside the downward spiral of the fertility rate is the concerning trend of declining sperm count in recent decades. Studies have documented a dramatic drop in average sperm concentrations, from around 101 million per milliliter in 1973 to just 49 million per milliliter in 2018 — a decline of over 50%. This has major implications, as male factor infertility is now estimated to account for around half of all fertility problems worldwide.

Unhealthy lifestyle behaviors appear to be a key driver of this decline. Smoking, in particular, has been strongly linked to decreased sperm counts, with research indicating up to 25% of male smokers have sub-optimal sperm concentrations. The chemicals in cigarette smoke are believed to have a toxic effect on sperm production and quality. Similarly, excessive alcohol consumption has been associated with lower sperm counts and impaired sperm motility. Poor diet, lack of exercise, and obesity also emerge as culprits, as these factors can disrupt the hormonal balance critical for proper sperm development.

Beyond lifestyle, environmental factors have also been implicated. Certain ubiquitous chemicals, such as phthalates found in plastics, and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) known as “forever chemicals,” have been shown to accumulate in seminal fluid and have detrimental impacts on sperm. Even everyday exposures, like the electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones, have been associated with reduced sperm counts and quality in some studies. This “toxic soup” of modern environmental contaminants appears to be taking a toll on male reproductive health.

Psychosocial stress is another major contributor, with research linking high stress levels to impaired sperm motility, abnormal morphology, and reduced concentrations. Prolonged stress may dysregulate the hormonal systems governing sperm production. Furthermore, as men delay parenthood to older ages, the natural age-related decline in sperm quality becomes an increasingly important factor. Studies indicate that conception rates drop by around 30% for men over 40 compared to those under 30, with up to a 23% annual decline starting at age 39.

Broader societal and economic trends have also played a role. The rising costs of raising children, with average expenses exceeding $310,000 per child to age 17, have led many couples to postpone starting families. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated this, with studies showing reduced sexual activity, particularly among more educated individuals concerned about disease transmission.

What Goes Around, Comes Around

Amidst this decline in fertility rate and sperm counts, we can examine history for examples of population collapse and civilization and empire collapse.

The Roman Empire’s population decline was a complex and multifaceted process that played a significant role in the empire’s eventual downfall. While the empire reached its peak under Trajan with an estimated population of 59–76 million, the late imperial period saw a steady decline in the number of Roman citizens.

One key factor was the low birth rates among the Roman elite and urban populations. The high cost of raising children, coupled with a cultural shift towards smaller families, contributed to this demographic trend. Additionally, the frequent wars, epidemics, and social unrest took a heavy toll on the population.

The declining population had far-reaching consequences for the Roman Empire. It weakened the military’s ability to defend the expansive territories, as there were fewer able-bodied citizens to serve as legionaries. This, in turn, made the empire more vulnerable to external threats, such as the invasions of Germanic tribes.

The economic impact was also profound, as a smaller workforce and a shrinking tax base undermined the empire’s financial stability. This led to difficulties in maintaining infrastructure, paying government salaries, and providing essential services to the population.

The Classic Maya civilization, which flourished in Mesoamerica from around the 3rd to 9th centuries AD, also experienced a dramatic population decline that contributed to its eventual collapse.

Scholars believe that a combination of environmental factors, including prolonged droughts, deforestation, and soil depletion, played a significant role in this decline. The overpopulation of Maya cities and the unsustainable agricultural practices strained the natural resources, leading to food shortages and social unrest.

In addition to the environmental challenges, the Maya civilization faced political turmoil, with constant warfare and power struggles between rival city-states. This political instability, along with the declining resource base, likely led to a decline in birth rates and increased mortality rates, contributing to the abandonment of many Maya cities.

The population collapse of the Classic Maya civilization had far-reaching consequences, as the once-thriving centers of learning, art, and architecture were left largely uninhabited. The decline of the Maya’s sophisticated social, political, and economic systems had a lasting impact on the region, with many of the achievements of this advanced civilization lost to history until their rediscovery in the modern era.

The Khmer Empire, centered in the region of present-day Cambodia, also experienced a significant population decline that ultimately led to the abandonment of its capital city, Angkor, in the 15th century.

At its peak, the Khmer Empire was a prosperous and powerful civilization, with an estimated population of 1 million people living in and around the city of Angkor. However, the empire’s collapse can be partly attributed to environmental stresses, such as deforestation and failures in the complex water management systems that were essential for the empire’s agricultural productivity.

As the natural resources became depleted and the agricultural system faltered, the Khmer population likely faced food shortages and economic hardship. This, combined with political instability and the threat of invasion from neighboring kingdoms, contributed to the exodus of people from the Angkor region.

The abandonment of the Khmer capital and the subsequent decline of the empire had a profound impact on the region. The once-thriving Khmer civilization, renowned for its architectural marvels like Angkor Wat, was reduced to a shadow of its former self, with the population dispersing and the political and social structures collapsing.

These historical examples of population collapse demonstrate the fragility of even the most advanced civilizations without discrimination across geographies, and the critical role that environmental, economic, and political factors can play in shaping the trajectory of human societies. Understanding these dynamics can provide valuable insights as we grapple with the challenges facing the modern world.

The Time is Now

We are the precipice of population collapse. By some estimates, deaths will outpace births in 2060, which is around one generation away. If we don’t do anything now, it will be too late to reverse the trends.

Given the urgency of the situation, several possible solutions could be considered. One approach is to ease immigration policies, allowing people to enter a country quickly and start families. However, this strategy can have significant repercussions on social integration, national identity, and sovereignty — issues that require careful consideration and may not be fully understood.

Another, though historically practiced, is expansionism through force. For instance, the Rattanakosin Empire in modern Thailand used this method, encouraging mass migration to populate their cities. However, in today’s world, such an approach is not only unfeasible but also highly unethical.

A more promising avenue lies in leveraging technology and artificial intelligence to support fertility efforts. AI could be used to develop more effective sperm and egg models, personalize fertility treatments, and reduce the risks associated with childbirth. This technological intervention could significantly enhance the probability of successful pregnancies.

Finally, pronatalist government policies, such as financial incentives, subsidized childcare, and parental leave, could encourage higher birth rates. While these measures may take time to implement and show results, they represent a critical component of a multi-faceted strategy to address the fertility crisis.

It will be likely that the right solution will take a combination of multiple tactics to address both the underlying cause, the incentive structures, and the cultural friction. It can be done, but we must address and start to tackle this issue before it is too late.

Learn more about how Fertility Labs is redefining the future of fertility — explore our vision and projects at fertilitylabs.ai.