Zero Fertility and the Dual-Use Dilemma: Preparing for the Future

As the global fertility rate continues to plummet in many nations, we are heading towards what I call a Zero Fertility Future (ZFF). This emerging reality holds profound implications for national security, economic stability, and defense strategies. While population decline presents challenges in maintaining labor forces, social services, and economic output, it also gives rise to an opportunity to rethink the relationship between civilian innovations and military applications — the foundation of what’s referred to as dual-use technologies.

In this essay, I will explore how, in the context of a ZFF, countries can harness dual-use technologies, such as AI, biotechnology, and education systems, to safeguard their future. By integrating national security objectives with technologies designed for broader societal use, states can address population-related challenges while enhancing their defense capabilities.

The Population Crisis and National Security

At the heart of the Zero Fertility Future is the challenge of maintaining human capital. With declining birth rates and aging populations, many countries will struggle to sustain economic growth and maintain key services like healthcare and education. As the labor force shrinks, the dependency ratio — the number of dependents (youth and elderly) relative to the working-age population — increases, placing greater strain on society.

From a national security perspective, the decline in population also impacts military recruitment, defense preparedness, and border control. Fewer people mean fewer soldiers and fewer individuals contributing to the national security workforce — a critical vulnerability. This is where dual-use technology can step in to close the gap, especially through the innovative use of AI, education, and biotechnology.

Dual-Use Technologies in a Zero Fertility Future

1. AI and Workforce Productivity

As populations shrink, the need to amplify individual productivity will become more urgent. This applies not only to the economy but also to national security. AI, automation, and robotics, initially developed for civilian use, will be essential in managing the gaps left by a smaller human workforce.

• Civilian Use: AI can help optimize sectors like healthcare, agriculture, and manufacturing, allowing fewer workers to do more. Automation and predictive analytics can enhance efficiencies in supply chains, medical diagnostics, and logistical operations.
• Military Use: The same AI-driven tools can be applied to defense. Autonomous drones, AI-driven surveillance, and decision-making algorithms are examples of dual-use AI technologies. These technologies will help fill the manpower gap in defense while improving the precision and speed of military operations.

Countries that focus on integrating AI into both civilian and defense industries will be better equipped to manage the ZFF challenge while maintaining their strategic advantages.

2. Education: Preparing for Civilian and Military Applications

In a Zero Fertility Future, education will play a crucial role in developing the workforce of the future, and it is here that the dual-use aspect becomes critical. Education systems must be adapted to teach AI literacy, STEM, and biotechnology from an early age, ensuring that the next generation is equipped for both civilian and military needs.

• Civilian Use: Comprehensive education models, like Armenia’s TUMO Center for Creative Technologies, emphasize digital literacy, creativity, and problem-solving in youth. Such models could be expanded and adapted globally to focus on equipping students with skills in AI, robotics, and programming from an early age.
• Military Use: The same AI-enabled education platforms that develop civilian skills can also be used to train cybersecurity experts, AI warfare specialists, and drone pilots. The earlier students are exposed to these technologies, the more seamless the transition between civilian and defense roles will become.

Countries that build a dual-use educational system — one that focuses on core technological skills applicable in both civilian and defense contexts — will ensure that their shrinking populations are still prepared for the challenges of the future.

3. Biotechnology: Fertility and Defense Innovation

As nations grapple with fertility challenges, biotechnology offers both civilian and military solutions. Fertility treatments, genetic engineering, and AI-driven reproductive technologies are civilian applications designed to combat declining birth rates. But the knowledge and technology gained through these applications can be repurposed for military advantages.

• Civilian Use: Governments might invest in research into fertility enhancement and population health technologies, both to boost birth rates and improve population health outcomes.
• Military Use: Advanced biotechnology could be repurposed for military objectives. For example, genetic screening or health optimization technologies developed to improve civilian fertility could also be used to enhance the physical and mental resilience of military personnel.

Such dual-use biotechnology can play a role in ensuring both a healthy civilian population and a prepared military force.

Sovereignty and National Control in Dual-Use Technologies

While dual-use technologies offer significant advantages, they raise questions about sovereignty and control. In a ZFF, control over AI, biotechnology, and education will determine which nations thrive and which falter. Countries need to ensure that the technologies they develop or adopt are under national control, preventing reliance on foreign entities that might use these technologies for geopolitical leverage.

For example, a country that imports AI surveillance systems or biotechnology from a foreign nation risks losing control over critical national infrastructure. Ensuring that dual-use technologies are domestically produced or tightly regulated is critical for both civilian and military applications. By fostering domestic innovation ecosystems, countries can maintain control over the tools needed for both economic and defense success.

Dual-Use as a Strategy for National Resilience

In the face of a Zero Fertility Future, countries must rethink their population management and security strategies. Dual-use technologies, particularly in AI, biotechnology, and education, offer a unique solution to this looming crisis. By ensuring that civilian innovations are also applicable to national security objectives, states can maximize the productivity of a shrinking population while maintaining their defense capabilities.

As the world faces unprecedented demographic changes, those nations that effectively manage the balance between civilian prosperity and military preparedness through dual-use technologies will be the ones that remain resilient and sovereign in the decades to come.

Learn more about how Fertility Labs is redefining the future of fertility — explore our vision and projects at fertilitylabs.ai.